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1.
Niger J Clin Pract ; 26(4): 485-490, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2326712

ABSTRACT

Background: Clinical studies suggest that warmer climates slow the spread of viral infections. In addition, exposure to cold weakens human immunity. Aim: This study describes the relationship between meteorological indicators, the number of cases, and mortality in patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective observational study. Adult patients who presented to the emergency department with confirmed COVID-19 were included in the study. Meteorological data [mean temperature, minimum (min) temperature, maximum (max) temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed] for the city of Istanbul were collected from the Istanbul Meteorology 1st Regional Directorate. Results: The study population consisted of 169,058 patients. The highest number of patients were admitted in December (n = 21,610) and the highest number of deaths (n = 46) occurred in November. In a correlation analysis, a statistically significant, negative correlation was found between the number of COVID-19 patients and mean temperature (rho = -0.734, P < 0.001), max temperature (rho = -0.696, P < 0.001) or min temperature (rho = -0.748, P < 0.001). Besides, the total number of patients correlated significantly and positively with the mean relative humidity (rho = 0.399 and P = 0.012). The correlation analysis also showed a significant negative relationship between the mean, maximum, and min temperatures and the number of deaths and mortality. Conclusion: Our results indicate an increased number of COVID-19 cases during the 39-week study period when the mean, max, and min temperatures were consistently low and the mean relative humidity was consistently high.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Meteorological Concepts , Temperature , Retrospective Studies , Cold Temperature
2.
Microbiol Spectr ; 11(3): e0488122, 2023 Jun 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2305436

ABSTRACT

The increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) has raised questions regarding the environmental stability of these viruses. Although a prolonged survival time has been reported for SARS-CoV-2, how long new variants can persist on contaminated surfaces and how environmental factors affect the persistence time are not fully characterized. The present study provides a comprehensive assessment of the stability of Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.5, which are currently circulating strains, on the surfaces of widely used transport packaging materials. By monitoring viable virus detection over a 7-day period under different environmental conditions, it was found that the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants depended heavily on the surface type, temperature, and virus concentration. In addition, virus nucleic acid exhibited high stability on the material surface independent of whether viable virus was detected. These findings provide useful information for logistics practitioners and the general public to appropriately deal with transport items under different conditions to minimize the risk of epidemic transmission. IMPORTANCE This study shows the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Omicron BA.1 and BA.5 on surfaces of widely used transport packaging materials. The findings demonstrate that the environmental stability of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants varies based on material type. The viability of SARS-CoV-2 on material surfaces depends heavily on temperature and viral titer. Low temperatures and high viral titers promote virus survival. Moreover, in contrast to virus viability, virus nucleic acid exhibits high stability on the surfaces of widely used materials, making the detection of virus nucleic acid unsuitable for evaluating the risk of epidemic transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Nucleic Acids , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Cold Temperature
3.
Environ Res ; 226: 115679, 2023 06 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2256897

ABSTRACT

Although ambient temperature has been linked to asthma exacerbation, impacts associated with extreme temperature events remain unclear. This study aims to identify the events characteristics that elevate risk of asthma hospital visits, and to assess whether healthy behavior changes due to the COVID-19 prevention and control policy may modify the relationships. Data of asthma hospital visits from all medical facilities in Shenzhen, China during 2016-2020 were assessed in relation to extreme temperature events using a distributed lag model. Stratified analysis was conducted by gender, age and hospital department to identify susceptible populations. Through events defined by various duration days and temperature thresholds, we explored the modification by events intensity, length, occurrence time and healthy behaviors. The cumulative relative risk of asthma during heat waves compared to other days was 1.06 (95%CI: 1.00-1.13) and for cold spells was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.05-1.30), and that of males and school-aged children were generally higher than other sub-groups. There were significant effects of heat waves and cold spells on asthma hospital visits when the mean temperature was above 90th percentile (30 °C) and below 10th percentile (14 °C) respectively, and the relative risks were higher when events lasted longer, became stronger, occurred in daytime and in early summer or winter. During the healthy behaviors maintaining period, the risk of heat waves increased whilst the risk of cold spells reduced. Extreme temperatures may pose considerable impact on asthma and the health effect can be modified by the event characteristics and anti-epidemic healthy behaviors. Strategies of asthma control should consider the heightened threats of the intense and frequent extreme temperature events in the context of climate change.


Subject(s)
Asthma , COVID-19 , Male , Child , Humans , Hot Temperature , Temperature , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cold Temperature , Asthma/epidemiology , Asthma/etiology , China/epidemiology , Health Behavior
4.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 20(1)2022 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2246783

ABSTRACT

While personal protective equipment (PPE) protects healthcare workers from viruses, it also increases the risk of heat stress. In this study, the effects of environmental heat stress, the insulation of the PPE inner-garment layer, and the personal cooling strategy on the physiological and perceptual responses of PPE-clad young college students were evaluated. Three levels of wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT = 15 °C, 28 °C, and 32 °C) and two types of inner garments (0.37 clo and 0.75 clo) were chosen for this study. In an uncompensable heat stress environment (WBGT = 32 °C), the effects of two commercially available personal cooling systems, including a ventilation cooling system (VCS) and an ice pack cooling system (ICS) on the heat strain mitigation of PPE-clad participants were also assessed. At WBGT = 15 °C with 0.75 clo inner garments, mean skin temperatures were stabilized at 31.2 °C, Hskin was 60-65%, and HR was about 75.5 bpm, indicating that the working scenario was on the cooler side. At WBGT = 28 °C, Tskin plateaued at approximately 34.7 °C, and the participants reported "hot" thermal sensations. The insulation reduction in inner garments from 0.75 clo to 0.37 clo did not significantly improve the physiological thermal comfort of the participants. At WBGT = 32 °C, Tskin was maintained at 35.2-35.7 °C, Hskin was nearly 90% RH, Tcore exceeded 37.1 °C, and the mean HR was 91.9 bpm. These conditions indicated that such a working scenario was uncompensable, and personal cooling to mitigate heat stress was required. Relative to that in NCS (no cooling), the mean skin temperatures in ICS and VCS were reduced by 0.61 °C and 0.22 °C, respectively, and the heart rates were decreased by 10.7 and 8.5 bpm, respectively. Perceptual responses in ICS and VCS improved significantly throughout the entire field trials, with VCS outperforming ICS in the individual cooling effect.


Subject(s)
Body Temperature Regulation , Heat Stress Disorders , Humans , Protective Clothing , Cold Temperature , Temperature , Skin Temperature , Heat Stress Disorders/prevention & control , Hot Temperature
5.
Environ Res ; 214(Pt 4): 114116, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2035993

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Whether ambient temperature exposure contributes to death from asthma remains unknown to date. We therefore conducted a case-crossover study in China to quantitatively evaluate the association and burden of ambient temperature exposure on asthma mortality. METHODS: Using data from the National Mortality Surveillance System in China, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study of 15 888 individuals who lived in Hubei and Jiangsu province, China and died from asthma as the underlying cause in 2015-2019. Individual-level exposures to air temperature and apparent temperature on the date of death and 21 days prior were assessed based on each subject's residential address. Distributed lag nonlinear models based on conditional logistic regression were used to quantify exposure-response associations and calculate fraction and number of deaths attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. RESULTS: We observed a reverse J-shaped association between air temperature and risk of asthma mortality, with a minimum mortality temperature of 21.3 °C. Non-optimum ambient temperature is responsible for substantial excess mortality from asthma. In total, 26.3% of asthma mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperatures, with moderate cold, moderate hot, extreme cold and extreme hot responsible for 21.7%, 2.4%, 2.1% and 0.9% of asthma mortality, respectively. The total attributable fraction and number was significantly higher among adults aged less than 80 years in hot temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to non-optimum ambient temperature, especially moderate cold temperature, was responsible for substantial excess mortality from asthma. These findings have important implications for planning of public-health interventions to minimize the adverse respiratory damage from non-optimum ambient temperature.


Subject(s)
Asthma , Cold Temperature , Adult , Asthma/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Cross-Over Studies , Hot Temperature , Humans , Mortality , Temperature
6.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24477, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1852481

ABSTRACT

Assessing the impact of temperature on COVID-19 epidemiology is critical for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, few studies have accounted for the nature of contagious diseases, i.e., their dependent happenings. We aimed to quantify the impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan, employing two epidemiological measurements of transmissibility and severity: the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and case fatality risk (CFR). We estimated the [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR and to subsequently assess the nonlinear and delayed effect of temperature on [Formula: see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR. For [Formula: see text] at low temperatures, the cumulative relative risk (RR) at the first temperature percentile (3.3 °C) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.7). As for the virulence to humans, moderate cold temperatures were associated with higher CFR, and CFR also increased as the temperature rose. The cumulative RR at the 10th and 99th percentiles of temperature (5.8 °C and 30.8 °C) for CFR were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.3-10.0) and 6.4 (95% CI: 4.1-10.1). Our results suggest the importance to take precautions to avoid infection in both cold and warm seasons to avoid severe cases of COVID-19. The results and our proposed approach will also help in assessing the possible seasonal course of COVID-19 in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Temperature , Basic Reproduction Number , Cold Temperature , Humans , Mortality , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Seasons , Severity of Illness Index , Tokyo/epidemiology , Virulence
7.
Lancet ; 398(10301): 685-697, 2021 08 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1815297

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS: In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS: We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION: Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Subject(s)
Cause of Death/trends , Cold Temperature/adverse effects , Global Burden of Disease/statistics & numerical data , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Hot Temperature/adverse effects , Mortality/trends , Bayes Theorem , Heart Diseases/epidemiology , Humans , Metabolic Diseases/epidemiology
8.
BMJ Open ; 12(3): e051534, 2022 03 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1745694

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Although the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in winter is thought to increase through viral droplets when coughing, current epidemiological data in this regard are limited. SETTING: Using the national epidemiological surveillance data in the autumn and winter seasons in Hokkaido, Japan, between February 2020 and February 2021, we analysed the relationship between case increase ratio and prevalence rate of coughing in patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in two age groups (0-40s and 50-100s) with concomitant air temperature and humidity. PARTICIPANTS: The 7893 cases of symptomatic PCR-positive patients consisted of 5361 cases in the young age group and 2532 cases in the older age group. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Pearson's correlation analysis and regression models were used to assess the relationships. Sex-adjusted OR of having cough in the young and old age groups in the autumn and winter seasons was calculated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The monthly prevalence rate of coughing in the young age group was negatively correlated with temperature (r=-0.77, p<0.05), and in the old age group it was negatively correlated with humidity (r=-0.71, p<0.05). Quadratic regression models were fitted for the relationship between cold temperatures and rate of coughing rate in the young age group and case increase ratios. The sex-adjusted OR of having a cough in the young age group in winter was 1.18 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.31) as compared with autumn. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest increased rate of coughing contributes to the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 in the winter. An effective control with a focus on these trends should be considered.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cold Temperature , Cough/epidemiology , Humans , Japan/epidemiology
9.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(3)2022 01 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1686750

ABSTRACT

Our research aimed to determine the impact of two types of protective gloves. The research tested the glove performance on men exposed to a range of temperatures reflecting the working conditions in fruit and vegetable processing. The gloves were assessed for performance within the time required to complete a specific manual task and for performance relative to the subjective thermal sensations in the male subjects. Six males participated in a total of 3 study variants: at +5 °C (with double gloves and single glove), at -1 °C (with double gloves and single glove) and in reference conditions +20 °C (without gloves), in which they performed manual tasks. The measurement of manual task performance time was used to assess manual dexterity. Subjective thermal sensations were determined. Differences in the time required to complete specific tasks were observed between the variants with gloves (both at a temperature of +5 °C and -1 °C), and without gloves (p < 0.05). The type of protective gloves had an impact on the time needed to complete manual tasks and therefore may affect manual dexterity.


Subject(s)
Gloves, Protective , Motor Skills , Cold Temperature , Hand , Humans , Male , Pilot Projects , Task Performance and Analysis
10.
Biochimie ; 191: 164-171, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1415209

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by a pattern of consecutive declines and regrowth in European countries in 2020. After being partially regressed during the summer, the reappearance of the infection during fall 2020 in many temperate countries strongly suggests that temperature and cold may play a role in influencing the infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. While promoting medicine as an art, Hippocrates interpreted with logical reasoning the occurrence of diseases such as epidemics, as a consequence of environmental factors, in particular climatic variations. During the Renaissance, Sanctorius was one of the first to perform quantitative measurements, and Harvey discovered the circulation of blood by performing experimental procedures in animals. We think that a reasoning mixing various observations, measurements and experiments is fundamental to understand how cold increases infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. By this review, we provide evidence linking cold, angiotensin-II, vasoconstriction, hypoxia and aerobic glycolysis (the Warburg effect) to explain how cold affects the epidemiology of COVID-19. Also, a low humidity increases virus transmissibility, while a warm atmosphere, a moderate airway humidity, and the production of vasodilator angiotensin 1-7 by ACE2 are less favorable to the virus entry and/or its development. The meteorological and environmental parameters impacting COVID-19 pandemic should be reintegrated into a whole perspective by taking into account the different factors influencing transmissibility, infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. To understand the modern enigma represented by COVID-19, an interdisciplinary approach is surely essential.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/etiology , Cold Temperature , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Animals , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Pneumonia/etiology , Respiratory System/virology , Virus Internalization
11.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 13592, 2021 06 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1387484

ABSTRACT

With global demand for SARS-CoV-2 testing ever rising, shortages in commercially available viral transport media pose a serious problem for laboratories and health care providers. For reliable diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, executed by Real-time PCR, the quality of respiratory specimens, predominantly determined by transport and storage conditions, is crucial. Therefore, our aim was to explore the reliability of minimal transport media, comprising saline or the CDC recommended Viral Transport Media (HBSS VTM), for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses (influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, rhinovirus and human metapneumovirus) compared to commercial products, such as the Universal Transport Media (UTM). We question the assumptions, that the choice of medium and temperature for storage and transport affect the accuracy of viral detection by RT-PCR. Both alternatives to the commercial transport medium (UTM), HBSS VTM or saline, allow adequate detection of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, regardless of storage temperatures up to 28 °C and storage times up to 28 days. Our study revealed the high resilience of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, enabling proper detection in clinical specimens even after long-time storage at high temperatures, independent of the transport medium's composition.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , Culture Media/chemistry , Preservation, Biological/methods , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Specimen Handling/methods , Virology/methods , Cold Temperature , Humans , Laboratory Chemicals/chemistry , Reproducibility of Results , Time Factors
14.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 12756, 2021 06 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1275952

ABSTRACT

Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1 g/m3 was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R0. Below 10 °C, a temperature reduction of 1 °C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R0. Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer to winter, corresponding to drop in temperature associated with an overall decrease in absolute humidity, likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Non-pharmaceutical interventions must be adjusted to account for increased transmissibility in winter conditions.


Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Cold Temperature , Humidity , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Canada/epidemiology , France/epidemiology , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Portugal/epidemiology , Public Health , Quarantine/methods , Spain/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology
15.
Transfus Apher Sci ; 60(5): 103188, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1263383

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES AND BACKGROUND: In December 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China. Its causative virus, is a novel strain of RNA viruses with high mortality rate. There is no definitive treatment, but among available approaches the use of recovered patients' plasma containing specific antibodies can enhance the immune response against coronavirus. However, the dearth of eligible donors and also ABO incompatibility in plasma transfusion, have limited this therapeutic method. Therefore, it is highly desirable to introduce a simple procedure that allows efficient reduction or even removal of natural ABO antibodies. Accordingly, we aimed to evaluate a RBC-mediated adsorption technique that reduces the titer of the mentioned antibodies in plasma. METHODS/MATERIALS: This experimental study was conducted in Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran. The pre- and post-incubation antibody titers of 168 plasma samples were determined. For incubation, each plasma sample was exposed (60 min) to different percentages of RBCs at room temperature or 4 °C. RESULTS: The results evidenced that both the concentration of RBCs and temperature had significant decreasing effects on antibody titer (P < 0.001) and all concentrations significantly reduced titer. Compared to RT, 4 °C further reduced the antibody titer. Overall, the best incubation condition for reducing antibody titer in all blood groups was 4 °C and 2% RBCs concentration. CONCLUSION: The presented adsorption procedure is able to produce universal plasma (we call it Ubiquitous Convalescent Plasma) with a non-immunogenic level of ABO mismatch antibodies which can be used for COVID-19 patients with any type of blood group with desirable simplicity, feasibility, and efficacy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Immunosorbent Techniques , Isoantibodies/blood , Plasma , SARS-CoV-2 , ABO Blood-Group System/immunology , Adsorption , Blood Group Antigens , COVID-19/blood , Cold Temperature , Convalescence , Erythrocyte Count , Erythrocytes/immunology , Humans , Immunization, Passive/methods , Isoantibodies/immunology , COVID-19 Serotherapy
16.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(25)2021 06 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1262033

ABSTRACT

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention ("lockdown") and reductions in individuals' mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Cold Temperature , Population Density , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Forecasting , Humans , Movement , SARS-CoV-2 , Seasons , United States/epidemiology
17.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 11302, 2021 05 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1246400

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 pandemic continues to obstruct social lives and the world economy other than questioning the healthcare capacity of many countries. Weather components recently came to notice as the northern hemisphere was hit by escalated incidence in winter. This study investigated the association between COVID-19 cases and two components, average temperature and relative humidity, in the 16 states of Germany. Three main approaches were carried out in this study, namely temporal correlation, spatial auto-correlation, and clustering-integrated panel regression. It is claimed that the daily COVID-19 cases correlate negatively with the average temperature and positively with the average relative humidity. To extract the spatial auto-correlation, both global Moran's [Formula: see text] and global Geary's [Formula: see text] were used whereby no significant difference in the results was observed. It is evident that randomness overwhelms the spatial pattern in all the states for most of the observations, except in recent observations where either local clusters or dispersion occurred. This is further supported by Moran's scatter plot, where states' dynamics to and fro cold and hot spots are identified, rendering a traveling-related early warning system. A random-effects model was used in the sense of case-weather regression including incidence clustering. Our task is to perceive which ranges of the incidence that are well predicted by the existing weather components rather than seeing which ranges of the weather components predicting the incidence. The proposed clustering-integrated model associated with optimal barriers articulates the data well whereby weather components outperform lag incidence cases in the prediction. Practical implications based on marginal effects follow posterior to model diagnostics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Cold Temperature , Computer Simulation , Correlation of Data , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Incidence , Pandemics , Regression Analysis , Seasons , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Weather
18.
J Epidemiol Glob Health ; 11(2): 160-163, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1194575
20.
mSphere ; 6(2)2021 03 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1166378

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) carrying the D614G mutation on the spike protein is the predominant circulating variant and is associated with enhanced infectivity. However, whether this dominant variant can potentially spread through the cold chain and whether the spike protein affects virus stability after cold storage remain unclear. To compare the infectivity of two SARS-CoV-2 variants, namely, SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike protein with the D614 mutation (S-D614) and G614 mutation (S-G614), after different periods of refrigeration (4°C) and freezing (-20°C). We also determined the integrity of the viral RNA and the ability of the spike protein to bind angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) after storage at these conditions. The results showed that SARS-CoV-2 was more stable and infectious after storage at -20°C than at 4°C. Particularly, the S-G614 variant was found to be more stable than the S-D614 variant. The spike protein of the S-G614 variant had better binding ability with the ACE2 receptor than that of the S-D614 variant after storage at -20°C for up to 30 days. Our findings revealed that SARS-CoV-2 remains stable and infectious after refrigeration or freezing, and their stability and infectivity up to 30 days depends on the spike variant. Stability and infectivity are related to each other, and the higher stability of S-G614 compared to that of S-D614 may contribute to rapid viral spread of the S-G614 variant.IMPORTANCE It has been observed that variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are more stable and infectious after storage at -20°C than at 4°C. A SARS-CoV-2 S-D614G variant is currently the most dominant variant in circulation and is associated with enhanced infectivity. We compared the stability of two SARS-CoV-2 variants: the early S-D614 variant carrying the D614 spike protein and the new S-G614 variant carrying the G614 spike protein, stored at both 4°C and -20°C for different periods. We observed that SARS-CoV-2 remains stable and infectious after refrigeration or freezing, which further depends on the spike variant, that is, the ability of the spike protein to bind with the ACE2 receptor with higher efficiency. The high stability of the S-G614 variant also explains its rapid spread and infectivity. Therefore, precautions should be taken during and after handling food preserved under cold conditions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Cold Temperature , Genetic Fitness/genetics , Humans , Mutation , Protein Stability
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